Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2017/3/a/ii/solution
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Conditional on , the future Bernoulli random variable is independent of the observed statistical sample and has success probability . Its posterior predictive probability is therefore the posterior mean of . Put and . Thenusing the beta-gamma identity and the Gamma function recurrence. HenceThe whole posterior predictive distribution of is the Bernoulli distribution with this success probability.
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