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ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/3/a/ii/solution
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2023 3 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
An equal-tailed credible interval for a continuous posterior distribution has probability below its lower endpoint and above its upper endpoint. If is the posterior cumulative distribution function, the endpoints are and .
A highest posterior density interval is a credible interval consisting of points of highest posterior density: every included point has density at least as high as every excluded point, apart from null-set and boundary choices. It is a posterior highest density region when that region is an interval. For a continuous unimodal density with two interior endpoints, their densities agree. A mode at a support boundary can instead force one endpoint to that boundary; a multimodal posterior can have a disconnected highest-density region rather than one interval. Equal tails and highest density need not give the same interval.
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