Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-year-1-of-the-computer-science-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2014/discrete-mathematics-continuous-mathematics-and-probability/7/b/iv/solution

If the selected coin has bias , the other two biases sum to . A uniform choice between those two coins therefore has conditional head probability . Average over the posterior distribution, using the previous posterior predictive probability:
The observation makes a high-bias coin more likely to have been removed from the remaining pair.

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