Probability generating function of an independent sum

ID: probability-generating-function-of-an-independent-sum

For nonnegative integer-valued independent random variables , factor the expected value of a product:
The Cauchy product explains what this means for individual probability masses:
Every way of splitting the total contributes once. This is convolution of independent random variables; multiplying probability generating functions performs the bookkeeping automatically.
For an original example, take independent and , using the Bernoulli distribution and binomial distribution. Then
so
Direct enumeration of the six pairs gives the same probability masses. For example, total one collects and , with contributions . The coefficients sum to one. The expected value is ; since , the variance is , agreeing with .
Figure 1.
Multiplying probability generating functions accounts for every pair with the same total
. The six cells give the exact joint probability mass function for the chosen independent Bernoulli distribution and binomial distribution. Colors group equal totals; the stacked bars collect their contributions to the coefficients of the product probability generating function. These are calculated model probabilities. Details.
Uncorrelated random variables are insufficient for the product identity. For a concrete counterexample, let be uniform on and set , . Then , but , whereas . Zero covariance controls one mixed moment, not the full joint probability mass function.

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