Weakly stationary process
ID: weakly-stationary-process
A real stochastic process is a weakly stationary process if it has finite second moments, a constant expected value , and an autocovariance depending only on the lag of a time series:In particular its variance is the same at every time, . This is often called second-order stationarity. It makes observations from different parts of a record comparable through the same autocorrelation function. Bartlett uses this second-order meaning of stationarity in Introduction to Time Series Analysis, lecture 2: mean, covariance, and stationarity.
For a worked contrast, let be centered white noise of variance . The process has mean , variance , and zero autocovariance at nonzero lags, so it is weakly stationary. The process has exactly the same covariance structure, but its mean is , so it is not weakly stationary. Constant variance alone is insufficient.
Weak stationarity need not imply strict stationarity. For example, choose independent random variables at all integer times, using a standard normal distribution at even times and a Rademacher distribution at odd times. Every coordinate has zero mean and unit variance, and distinct coordinates have zero covariance. Nevertheless a shift by one changes the marginal probability distribution from continuous to two-point. This also illustrates why weak white noise need not be identically distributed.
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