Discounted gambler's ruin hitting probability Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-11-05
For a nearest-neighbour random walk on with right-step Probability , left-step Probability , and Absorption time , first-step conditioning gives , , . For , the two positive distinct characteristic roots are . Solving the boundary equations gives . The maximum principle proves uniqueness for equal boundary data. This is the joint generating function of the Absorption time and the lower-end absorption event.
Four-state reflecting absorbing random walk Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
For the chain with absorbing, equal-probability nearest-neighbour moves between , and a probability- self-loop at , starting from the expected Absorption time is , the Probability of visiting before is , and the expected number of visits to before absorption is .
Mean absorption time of a lazy symmetric random walk Created 2026-10-25 Updated 2026-11-05
Consider a random walk on with absorbing states . At each interior state it stays in place with probability , and moves one position in either direction with probability , where . Its mean absorption time from isProof. A sequence of at most consecutive leftward moves ensures absorption, with probability at least . Dividing time into blocks of length gives a geometric series bound on the survival probabilities, so the expected value is finite. Let . The law of total expectation and first-step analysis giveThus . A particular solution of this linear recurrence relation is ; its homogeneous solutions are . The two boundary conditions give , , proving both the formula and its uniqueness. Holding slows the usual symmetric random walk by the factor .
At an absorbing state, the remaining absorption time is zero, so . Multiplying the linear recurrence relation by three givesThe second finite difference of is two. A particular solution is therefore , while every solution of the corresponding homogeneous linear recurrence relation has the form . The boundary conditions give and , henceThis is the mean absorption time of a lazy symmetric random walk with holding probability .
First the expected value of the absorption time is finite. From any interior state, consecutive leftward moves lead to absorption within at most steps, with probability at least . By independence of the subsequent steps, the probability of surviving steps is at most . Summing this geometric series bounds the expected value of the absorption time by .
Now apply first-step analysis. Starting from in the interior, one step is always used. Conditional on that step, the remaining expected values are , , and , each with probability . The law of total expectation therefore givesThe term remains even when the particle stays at , because a step has elapsed. Rearranging gives
Let be the absorption time. Its expectation is finite: from every interior state, a string of at most successive left moves reaches , and the probability of such a string is at least . Hence the Markov property gives , a geometric tail bound, and .
For , one step is always spent before absorption or the remaining walk. Apply first-step analysis and the law of total expectation to the three possible first moves. The conditional expectations of the remaining absorption time are , respectively; independence of future moves gives the same law as a fresh random walk from the new position. Thuswhich rearranges toThe term also appears when the walk stays at , because staying still consumes a step.