Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 52 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use an assortatively mixed two-risk-group SIS model with equal per-person recovery rate . Let be infectious proportions in groups of sizes . Let be their fixed contact rates and the transmission probability per contact. Suppose a small fixed fraction of high-risk contacts is with the low-risk group. Contact reciprocity in a two-group epidemic requiresFor sufficiently small , both groups make most contacts within their own group, and the total cross-group contacts are of order . Define , , and . The forces of infection giveHere and hold in the small- regime. High-risk per-person cross contact is order one but its group size is order ; low-risk per-person cross contact is order . These distinctions are needed to count each cross-group partnership consistently.
Linearize about the disease-free state. In infectious fractions the transmission matrix isIn infected-individual counts the next-generation matrix is insteadThe count and fraction formulations are related by a diagonal change of coordinates, so their eigenvalues coincide. The basic reproduction number is the spectral radius , not an average of the two group reproduction numbers. The larger real eigenvalue isThis model makes a particular reciprocal mixing convention explicit; different defensible contact laws can change the first-order coefficients.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 52 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The high-contact assumptions give away from a degeneracy. Since , perturbing the larger eigenvalue in the assortatively mixed two-risk-group SIS model givesFor the biologically useful high-risk-core regime , put . Substituting and into the two equilibrium equations givesThus the group susceptible fractions and their population-weighted total areThe small-core SIS endemic expansion shows why the homogeneous SIS susceptible fraction relation fails for a mixed population: as the high-risk fraction tends to zero, while . A small high-risk core sustains infection even though almost everyone in the population remains susceptible. Even need not equal at first order.
For completeness, if with a fixed gap from threshold, small gives disease-free equilibrium and total susceptibility one. If , the low-risk group already sustains infection. Put and let be the positive root of . The first-order coefficients areAgain it tends to rather than . These regular expansions require fixed nonzero gaps. At the spectral splitting is generally order ; at , low-risk infection is also order , so a regular first-order Taylor expansion is inappropriate. An exact endemic replacement for the scalar identity is that the susceptible-weighted next-generation matrix has spectral radius one.