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Bayes estimator under reciprocal weighted quadratic loss (dB​=(E[Θ−1∣X])−1)

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Statistical inference Bayesian statistics Bayes estimator
Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a positive parameter Θ and loss L(d,Θ)=Θ−1(Θ−d)2, assume E[Θ∣X]<∞ and 0<E[Θ−1∣X]<∞. Then
E[L(d,Θ)∣X]=E[Θ∣X]−2d+d2E[Θ−1∣X].
(1)
This quadratic has the unique minimizer d=(E[Θ−1∣X])−1, a harmonic rather than arithmetic posterior mean. Both moment conditions matter: finiteness of the inverse moment alone does not prevent the posterior expected loss from being infinite for every finite action.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2025 / ii / Paper 3 / 28L / b / iii / Solution

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