Let be the probability density function of the unknown and that of the noise, both relative to Lebesgue measure. By independence of random variables, the conditional distribution of the measurement given has density . Thus its likelihood function and the joint density are
The Bayesian model evidence is the marginal data density
Bayes' theorem gives the posterior density solving this Bayesian inverse problem:
This formula applies when . Since by Tonelli theorem, these conditions hold almost everywhere under the marginal data law. Values of a conditional distribution at exceptional data are not determined by the joint law. The posterior mean or a maximum a posteriori estimate can then give a point estimate, while the full posterior density describes the remaining uncertainty.
A Bayesian inverse problem consists of a prior distribution on the unknown , a reference measure on the data space , and a jointly measurable likelihood such that is a probability density function for -almost every . For observed data , Bayes' theorem defines the posterior distribution by
provided .
For observed , the Gaussian likelihood is
Thus the Bayesian inverse problem is to determine the posterior distribution of given . With
Bayes' formula gives