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Separate evidence produced by the mother from evidence identifying the fetus. The classical presumptive, probable and positive grouping expresses increasing diagnostic confidence; it is not a numerical probability scale.

Presumptive signs include missed menstruation, nausea or pregnancy-associated vomiting, breast enlargement and tenderness, changes in the areola, urinary frequency and the mother's sensation of fetal movement, traditionally called quickening. Each can have another explanation. Amenorrhoea may result from illness or endocrine disturbance; abdominal enlargement can arise from a pelvic mass, ascites or other causes. A report of movement is not equivalent to movement detected independently by the examiner.

Probable physical signs include a progressively enlarged uterus with the appropriate change in contour, softening of the cervix and uterine tissues, increased vascularity and colour change of the genital mucosa, and intermittent uterine contractions. Ballottement is the rebound of a movable object within fluid when it is displaced: in the right clinical setting it supports a gravid uterus, but the physical phenomenon alone does not identify a living fetus. A vascular sound heard over the uterus follows the maternal circulation and is not the fetal heartbeat.

Positive evidence available to the 1865 examiner was a fetal heartbeat heard with a stethoscope, unmistakable fetal movements appreciated during examination, and identification of fetal parts. Repeated examination as pregnancy advances strengthens their interpretation. The examiner should compare the perceived heartbeat with the maternal pulse rather than accept any abdominal sound as fetal. These findings generally become useful later than the earliest symptoms, so their absence early on does not exclude pregnancy. The mother’s quickening remains a symptom; independently established fetal movement is a different kind of evidence.

Modern additions. Human chorionic gonadotropin testing can detect pregnancy-related tissue before the classical physical signs become conclusive. A positive test does not establish location or continuing viability: it can occur in ectopic pregnancy and must be interpreted in context. Ultrasound can establish location and show an embryo or fetus with cardiac activity. Very early uncertain findings may require repeat assessment rather than a premature conclusion. These technologies are later developments, not signs that an 1865 candidate could have obtained. ^{[ref] [ref]}

The historical prognosis was guarded: malignant disease could return after apparently complete removal, and operative recovery was not equivalent to cure. There is no defensible single percentage for the unspecified case in this question. An answer should explain the seriousness of recurrence, its forms and the evidence needed to estimate it, rather than invent an exact probability.

What counts as return? A new nodule in the scar or nearby skin is a local recurrence; involvement of regional lymph nodes is regional recurrence; disease in distant organs is metastasis. These may represent residual local disease, disease already present but undetected, or later growth of disseminated cells. A grossly clear wound therefore does not prove absence of malignant cells elsewhere. A benign mammary tumour erroneously included with cancers would distort any estimate in the opposite direction.

What an 1865 observer could reasonably say. Visible removal could relieve an ulcerating, painful or bleeding breast lesion, but the subsequent course still had to be observed. The extent of the original growth, fixation to surrounding parts, involvement of axillary nodes, the ability to remove it completely and the interval free from disease all mattered to prognosis. Neither early apparent healing nor a short symptom-free interval established that return could no longer occur.

A contemporary 1863 review makes an especially relevant methodological point: recurrence after operation could not be accurately determined among hospital patients who disappeared from observation unless a rapid return brought them back. Thus a statement about the proportion who returned to the surgeon is not the same as a complete recurrence risk among everyone operated on. This contemporary evidence supports a cautious answer without borrowing a later operation or a modern survival statistic. ^[ref]

Present-day explanation. Breast cancer recurrence risk depends on stage, tumour size and grade, lymph node involvement, completeness of excision and tumour biology. Modern assessment also distinguishes hormone-receptor and other molecular subtypes and takes account of additional treatment. Positive margins, more advanced disease and certain aggressive subtypes increase risk. Consequently a modern estimate requires the actual tumour and treatment information; it cannot be inferred from the bare fact that a breast cancer was removed. ^[ref]

Any numerical claim must specify the population, what event is counted, the treatment, the follow-up period and how patients lost to observation are handled. Death before observed recurrence and the difference between local recurrence and distant disease also affect interpretation. A recurrence percentage is not automatically an operative death rate or a survival rate. The appropriate concise conclusion for this historical question is therefore a substantial concern for return, with prognosis conditioned by extent and completeness of removal, and no guaranteed disease-free interval or universal percentage.

The quotation marks around “Malignant” matter. In 1867 the clinical grouping did not have a single settled boundary in histology. Infiltration, destructive growth, return after removal, spread to distant sites and progressive constitutional illness were warning features; hardness or rapid growth alone was not a sufficient definition. A contemporary review of an 1866 textbook explicitly disputed confused descriptions of hard and soft cancer, illustrating that this was already a live diagnostic controversy.^[ref]

A useful period classification, without pretending that every contemporary author drew the same boundaries, is:

Those are overlapping historical descriptive groups, not six mutually exclusive modern diagnoses. Nor does every growth historically called “sarcoma” meet the modern definition of sarcoma.

The modern organising principle asks what cells are malignant. Carcinoma arises from epithelium; sarcoma arises in bone or soft tissue; melanoma arises from melanocytes; lymphoma and leukaemia concern blood-forming or immune cells. Other families include central nervous system and germ cell tumours. A solid lump is not essential for cancer. Within a family, histology, immunohistochemistry and appropriate molecular diagnostics refine the diagnosis. Tumour grade describes features of aggressiveness, whereas tumour stage describes extent of disease.^[ref]

This also corrects the old inference that recurrence must reflect a mysterious constitutional deposit: local residual disease and metastasis are distinct mechanisms, and an apparently circumscribed growth may already have disseminated.