Coincidence and noise controls for GW150914

The modeled matched filter search found an arrival difference of about $7\mathrm{ms}$, within the roughly $10\mathrm{ms}$ intersite light travel time. Background events were obtained by shifting one detector's timestamps far beyond that time and repeating the coincidence analysis. The binary search bounded the false alarm rate below one event per $203000$ years. That is an empirically estimated background rate, not a probability that the source interpretation is false.^[ref]

The logic is to destroy a common astronomical arrival while retaining each instrument's real glitches. A Poisson distribution approximation would turn a background rate $r$ into $1-e^{-rT}$ for at least one equally strong noise event during live time $T$, only after accounting for the search's ranking and trials. Repeated time slides reuse data; their accumulated background duration is not an equally long series of independent new observations. Correlated disturbances also require separate controls because shifting timestamps can erase them along with a true signal.

The dedicated noise study inspected auxiliary channels and deliberately applied magnetic, acoustic and mechanical disturbances to measure their coupling into strain. For GW150914, checks included environmental coincidences, instrument state, and exclusion of an intentional hardware injection. It also examined potentially correlated global magnetic disturbances, which time slides alone cannot exclude.^[ref] The point of an injection test is quantitative: a quiet environmental monitor is informative only if its sensitivity and coupling bound the disturbance needed to explain the candidate.