Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 207 7 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use the allowed ratio-of-expectations approximation where . The unconditional numerator and denominator from part (b) giveThe common censoring survivor function cancels in this approximation. By differentiating the logarithm, its value is the population integrated hazard:This is not generally the arithmetic mean of the ; it is the cumulative hazard function of the population mixture from part (a). The cancellation requires a common independent censoring law and adequate observation of the time range.
The approximation establishes approximate unbiasedness, not exact finite-sample unbiasedness. For a direct counterexample, take one uncensored individual with exponential distribution of rate . The Nelson–Aalen estimator is then , whose expectation is , whereas . Thus it is not an unbiased estimator in general.
More explicitly, for independent individuals with a common event hazard , the exact expected estimator isThis exhibits finite-sample bias of Nelson–Aalen estimation and dependence on when empty risk sets are possible. In a heterogeneous population, replacing the random ratios by ratios of their means introduces an additional approximation. On adequately observed intervals with large risk sets, the population-mixture expression is the appropriate large-sample target.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 207 4 b Solution 2026-09-28
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 207 5 c i Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
Since has cumulative hazard function ,Thus the cumulative-hazard time change has an exponential distribution of rate .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 207 6 c Solution 2026-09-28
The conditional mean frailty among survivors isBecause the cumulative hazard function is nondecreasing, this mean is nonincreasing: high-frailty individuals tend to experience the event earlier, leaving a progressively more robust surviving population.
At time , the observed number of events is and the exposure to the common instantaneous hazard is the risk-set size . The likelihood score for a hazard increment therefore equates observed and expected events:Thus the Nelson–Aalen estimator isIt estimates the cumulative hazard function by adding event count divided by current exposure at every observed event time.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 4 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Let be the at-risk process and the counting process for observed events. Over a short interval, the multiplicative-intensity model giveswhere is the hazard function and the cumulative hazard function. Solving this relation for the infinitesimal hazard increment suggests . Summing over distinct event times gives the Nelson–Aalen estimatorwhere events occur among individuals at risk. Here there are no ties, so .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 5 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
A proportional hazards family has hazard functions related bywhere the hazard ratio is positive and independent of time. Equivalently, its cumulative hazard functions satisfy and its survivor functions satisfy .
Population hazard of a survival mixture Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
For an equally weighted mixture of individual survivor functions , the population hazard function is . Thus the weights are the surviving proportions, and the cumulative hazard function is , not generally the mean individual integrated hazard.
Survival distribution 2026-10-07
A survival distribution is the probability distribution of an event or failure time, commonly summarized by its survivor function, hazard function or cumulative hazard function. It may contain atoms or a positive probability of an event never occurring; an ordinary density-based hazard therefore need not describe every survival distribution.