Use the allowed ratio-of-expectations approximation where . The unconditional numerator and denominator from part (b) give
The common censoring survivor function cancels in this approximation. By differentiating the logarithm, its value is the population integrated hazard:
This is not generally the arithmetic mean of the ; it is the cumulative hazard function of the population mixture from part (a). The cancellation requires a common independent censoring law and adequate observation of the time range.
The approximation establishes approximate unbiasedness, not exact finite-sample unbiasedness. For a direct counterexample, take one uncensored individual with exponential distribution of rate . The Nelson–Aalen estimator is then , whose expectation is , whereas . Thus it is not an unbiased estimator in general.
More explicitly, for independent individuals with a common event hazard , the exact expected estimator is
This exhibits finite-sample bias of Nelson–Aalen estimation and dependence on when empty risk sets are possible. In a heterogeneous population, replacing the random ratios by ratios of their means introduces an additional approximation. On adequately observed intervals with large risk sets, the population-mixture expression is the appropriate large-sample target.
The cumulative hazard function is defined through the conditional mean increment
Equivalently, and .
Since has cumulative hazard function ,
Thus the cumulative-hazard time change has an exponential distribution of rate .
The conditional mean frailty among survivors is
Because the cumulative hazard function is nondecreasing, this mean is nonincreasing: high-frailty individuals tend to experience the event earlier, leaving a progressively more robust surviving population.
At time , the observed number of events is and the exposure to the common instantaneous hazard is the risk-set size . The likelihood score for a hazard increment therefore equates observed and expected events:
Thus the Nelson–Aalen estimator is
It estimates the cumulative hazard function by adding event count divided by current exposure at every observed event time.
Let be the at-risk process and the counting process for observed events. Over a short interval, the multiplicative-intensity model gives
where is the hazard function and the cumulative hazard function. Solving this relation for the infinitesimal hazard increment suggests . Summing over distinct event times gives the Nelson–Aalen estimator
where events occur among individuals at risk. Here there are no ties, so .
A proportional hazards family has hazard functions related by
where the hazard ratio is positive and independent of time. Equivalently, its cumulative hazard functions satisfy and its survivor functions satisfy .
Population hazard of a survival mixture Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
For an equally weighted mixture of individual survivor functions , the population hazard function is . Thus the weights are the surviving proportions, and the cumulative hazard function is , not generally the mean individual integrated hazard.
Survival distribution 2026-10-07
A survival distribution is the probability distribution of an event or failure time, commonly summarized by its survivor function, hazard function or cumulative hazard function. It may contain atoms or a positive probability of an event never occurring; an ordinary density-based hazard therefore need not describe every survival distribution.