Counting process ($N(t)$)

A counting process is an integer-valued stochastic process that starts at zero and increases by recording the cumulative number of events up to each time.

A predictable intensity $\lambda (t)$ is the derivative of an absolutely continuous compensator of a counting process: $N(t)-{\int }_0^t\lambda (u)du$ is a local martingale. It represents the conditional event rate given the immediately preceding history. In survival analysis the individual intensity is an at-risk indicator multiplied by its hazard function.

An observed event counting process has conditional increment $\mathbb{E}(d{N}_i(t)\mid {\mathcal{H}}_{t-})=Y_i(t)h_i(t)dt$, where $Y_i$ is the at-risk process. The filtration records the past observed events, censoring, and covariates; the integral of $Y_i{h}_i$ is the compensator of a counting process.

The compensator of a counting process $N(t)$ is a predictable increasing process $\Lambda (t)$ such that $N(t)-\Lambda (t)$ is a local martingale. For an observed event process with at-risk process $Y(t)$ and hazard function $h(t)$, it is $\Lambda (t)={\int }_0^{t}Y(u)h(u)du$ under independent censoring. It is cumulative intensity, rather than an event probability.

If a counting process $N$ has predictable conditional intensity $\lambda$, subtracting its compensator of a counting process gives the associated martingale $M$. Conditional expected event increments and compensator increments agree, so their difference is conditionally centered. With the necessary integrability, $M$ is a mean-zero martingale; for a simple no-ties process its predictable quadratic variation is ${\int }_0^t\lambda (u)du$. A predictable weighted martingale integral has mean zero and variance determined by the square of its weights. In survival analysis, $\lambda =Yh$ produces the event-minus-expected representation used to derive the Nelson–Aalen estimator.