A unit-root autoregressive process retains shocks permanently, whereas a causal time series with reverts towards its mean. Testing the unit root determines whether stationary autoregressive analysis is appropriate or differencing is needed. For the model without an intercept or trend, use the Dickey–Fuller test against the lower-sided alternative near the null. Put
This is the ordinary regression statistic for a zero coefficient when is regressed on , but its null probability distribution is not the usual Student law. Under the standard unit-root initialization and innovations independent of the starting value,
where is standard Brownian motion. If is the lower -quantile of , the asymptotic level- critical region is
The deterministic terms and null initialization must match the critical-value table. For exact finite-sample size of a statistical test, calibrate the statistic from its Gaussian random walk null with the specified initial condition and noise scale; for a zero starting value its distribution is scale-free. The printed two-sided recurrence alone specifies neither an initial law nor a universal finite-sample critical value. Ordinary normal quantiles do not give the intended size of a statistical test.