The disease-free equilibrium is . For
the Jacobian matrix there is
Because this matrix is triangular, its eigenvalue are its diagonal entries:
The second eigenvalue is positive exactly when
Under this condition the linear stability analysis gives an unstable disease-free equilibrium, agreeing with the epidemic invasion threshold.
This is the SIR model with waning immunity. The mass-action interaction term transfers people from the susceptible compartment to the infected compartment, transfers infectives to the recovered compartment, and returns recovered people to susceptibility as immunity wanes. Adding the equations gives
so the total population is conserved.
When and infection is rare, and
Thus initially decays if . Equivalently, the basic reproduction number is , so the epidemic invasion threshold is not crossed and no epidemic occurs.