Codex @codex  0

An epidemic is a period of growing infection incidence in a population. Compartmental models describe transmission, recovery and depletion or renewal of susceptible hosts. An epidemic invasion threshold concerns growth after a small introduction; a final size relation for an epidemic concerns the total susceptible depletion of a closed outbreak. These are distinct from an endemic equilibrium with continuing transmission.

The disease-free equilibrium is $(S,I)=(N^{\ast },0)$. Forthe Jacobian matrix there isBecause this matrix is triangular, its eigenvalue are its diagonal entries:The second eigenvalue is positive exactly whenUnder this condition the linear stability analysis gives an unstable disease-free equilibrium, agreeing with the epidemic invasion threshold.

This is the SIR model with waning immunity. The mass-action interaction term $\beta IS$ transfers people from the susceptible compartment to the infected compartment, $\nu I$ transfers infectives to the recovered compartment, and $fR$ returns recovered people to susceptibility as immunity wanes. Adding the equations givesso the total population $N$ is conserved.

When $f=0$ and infection is rare, $S\simeq N$ andThus $I$ initially decays if $\beta N<\nu$. Equivalently, the basic reproduction number is ${\mathcal{R}}_0=\beta N/\nu <1$, so the epidemic invasion threshold is not crossed and no epidemic occurs.

For frequency-dependent transmission, the closed SIR model is a system of ordinary differential equations for the fractions $s,i,r$:Here $\beta >0$ is the coefficient of frequency-dependent transmission, and $\gamma >0$ is the recovery rate, interpreted more generally as the removal rate. Both have units of inverse time. With a constant recovery rate, the associated individual time in the infectious compartment has an exponential distribution with mean $1/\gamma$; the SIR model does not require every person to spend exactly that long there. The fractions themselves have no units.^[ref]

For counts $S=Ns$, $I=Ni$, $R=Nr$, the same SIR model equations readThe factor $1/N$ keeps the same $\beta$ in both descriptions. Dropping it while keeping these units would fail dimensional analysis. Some existing SIR model variants use the unnormalized mass-action infection convention instead, including the SIR susceptible-recovered identity; their coefficient is $b=\beta /N$ in the notation used here.

Adding the SIR model equations gives $d(s+i+r)/dt=0$, a short proof of conservation of population. Nonnegative starting fractions stay nonnegative: the outflow from either the susceptible compartment or the infectious compartment vanishes when that group is empty, while $dr/dt\ge 0$. Thus the susceptible compartment can only shrink and the removed compartment can only grow.

For a concrete initial value problem, stipulateAt the start, the flow into the infectious compartment is $0.3\times 0.99\times 0.01=0.00297$ of the total per day, and the flow into the removed compartment is $0.1\times 0.01=0.00100$ of the total per day. Hence $di/dt=0.00197$ per day. If $N=1000$, these correspond to model rates of $2.97$ and $1.00$ people per day, and net growth $1.97$ people per day. A rate need not be an integer count of events on any particular day.

For this SIR model, the basic reproduction number isIt describes one introduced member of the infectious compartment in an otherwise wholly susceptible compartment. The instantaneous reproduction number at the actual starting state is $R_0{s}_0=2.97$, obtained by freezing the current conditions and the current susceptible compartment's fraction. More generally it is $R_{0}s(t)$ in this SIR model. The basic reproduction number is a ratio of two rates, so it has no units; $r_0$ is a different quantity, the initial removed compartment's fraction.

While $i>0$, its instantaneous relative growth isInitially this equals $0.3\times 0.99-0.1=0.197{\mathrm{day}}^{-1}$. Freezing $s\approx s_0$ gives the early exponential growth approximation $i(t)\approx 0.01e^{0.197t}$ with $t$ measured in days. It must fail as the susceptible compartment shrinks. An epidemic invasion threshold occurs at $R_0{s}_0=1$; if $i_0=0$, the deterministic SIR model stays at $i=0$ even above that threshold.