The offspring probabilities for have expected value one. For one initial individual, the branching-process generating-function iteration givesFor the PGF disk is ; separately. Conditional on survival, the population is positive geometric with success probability , leading to the exponential limit of surviving geometric branching.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 ia Paper 2 11F iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-07
For , substitute in the probability generating function. The moment-generating function of isThe domain follows from convergence of the generating series; at or above that positive threshold the expectation diverges, even though a rational continuation can be written.
Conditioning on survival, the probability mass function from part (ii) becomes a positive-integer geometric distribution:Its conditional moment-generating function is , tending to for fixed . We can prove the required limit directly, without invoking a continuity theorem. Set . For every , the strict upper tail is exactlySince and ,At both tails equal one. This is the exponential limit of surviving geometric branching. Conditioning is essential: the unconditional variable has probability of being zero, whereas the rare surviving population has size of order .