Max-stable distribution 2026-10-06
A non-degenerate distribution function is max-stable when every sample maximum of independent and identically distributed random variables can be positively scaled and centered to have the original law. Thus for every integer there are with . The extremal types theorem classifies these laws, up to affine changes, as the Gumbel distribution, Fréchet distribution, and negative Weibull distribution.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 34 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
A non-degenerate probability distribution is not concentrated at a single point. In extreme value theory, a non-degenerate distribution function is max-stable if, for each integer , constants satisfy for every . This says that a normalized sample maximum has the same law as one observation. A distribution function belongs to the maximum domain of attraction of a non-degenerate if there are such thatat every continuity point of . Equivalently, has convergence in distribution to .
The extremal types theorem says that any such non-degenerate limit is max-stable and, up to a positive affine change of variable, is exactly one of the following:These are respectively the Gumbel distribution, Fréchet distribution, and negative Weibull distribution. The theorem is also known as the Fisher–Tippett–Gnedenko theorem.
Useful sufficient conditions can be expressed using the survival function and the right endpoint of a distribution . An infinite endpoint with for every gives the Fréchet distribution domain. A finite endpoint with as gives the negative Weibull distribution domain. For the Gumbel distribution, it suffices that a positive Gumbel auxiliary function gives for every real as . These are regular variation and exponential tail-ratio conditions; they need no proof here.
In case (i), on , so the finite-endpoint ratio is exactly . Therefore the domain is negative Weibull with shape . With and ,and the limit is one for .
In case (ii), has exponential tail ratio with the constant Gumbel auxiliary function . Therefore the domain is Gumbel. Choosing and givesIn case (iii), has regular variation of index , so the domain is Fréchet with shape . The convenient choices and givewith limit zero for .
Finally, define the empirical distribution function . On a sample with positive threshold and exactly observations strictly above , its survival function has . Using the Tonelli theorem to integrate the finite nonnegative sum givesThis is the Hill estimator as an empirical plug-in version of the tail-integral limit. It does not prove consistency for fixed ; that is a separate issue.
There is a finite-sample qualification because the question permits ties and does not assume positive observations. The formula requires and . If because the threshold is tied, direct substitution giveswhere terms equal to the threshold contribute zero. This is generally times the displayed Hill estimator, rather than the same estimator. If , the empirical plug-in denominator is zero. For a continuous probability distribution the no-tie condition holds almost surely; for a Fréchet distribution domain and fixed , the threshold is positive with probability tending to one. Thus the stated plug-in identity holds at a positive untied threshold, and the literal claim for all samples from an arbitrary distribution function needs this qualification.