Fibonacci-coefficient autoregression (${\psi }_j=F_{j+1}{\alpha }^j$)

For $X_t=\alpha X_{t-1}+{\alpha }^2{X}_{t-2}+{\epsilon }_t$, let $\phi =(1+\sqrt{5})/2$. The autoregressive polynomial factors as $(1-\alpha \phi z)(1+\alpha z/\phi )$. Its roots lie outside the closed unit disk exactly when $|\alpha |<1/\phi$. In that causal region,The coefficients follow from ${\psi }_0=1,{\psi }_1=\alpha$ and ${\psi }_j=\alpha {\psi }_{j-1}+{\alpha }^2{\psi }_{j-2}$. They are absolutely summable in the stated region. Causality makes future white noise orthogonal to the observation past, giving forecasts $\alpha X_T+{\alpha }^2{X}_{T-1}$ and $2{\alpha }^2{X}_T+{\alpha }^3{X}_{T-1}$ at horizons one and two.