Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 32 2 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Set and . For the Poisson distribution observations, factors independent of can be removed from the likelihood function, leavingWhen , the log-likelihood derivative is and its second derivative is negative. The unique positive maximum-likelihood estimator is thereforeThere is a genuine boundary qualification: if , the likelihood decreases strictly on , so no maximum is attained in the stated open parameter space. On the closure , its maximizer is . Defining the usual extended maximum-likelihood estimator by the same displayed formula for every allows its statistical consistency to be examined; the all-zero event cannot be ignored because its probability does not tend to zero.
Indeed, sums of independent Poisson distribution variables give , soThus the extended maximum-likelihood estimator is inconsistent. More precisely, increases to , and shows that this total count is finite almost surely. Its distribution is Poisson distribution with mean , by taking limits of the finite-sum laws. HenceThis finite-exposure Poisson inconsistency leaves a nondegenerate random limit even with infinitely many observations. Correspondingly, the total Fisher information is , rather than diverging. The common-distribution hypothesis in the introductory maximum likelihood estimation theorem is absent here.