Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 41 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A functional statistic has the form , where is the empirical distribution and is a statistical functional on a class of distributions. It separates the population quantity from its sample estimate. Fisher consistency for a model means for every model parameter; it does not alone establish consistency of the empirical estimate without continuity and probabilistic conditions.
The influence function measures infinitesimal contamination at a point:when this derivative exists. A bounded influence function limits first-order sensitivity to an arbitrarily remote observation.
An M-estimator is a minimizer of an empirical loss, or a chosen consistent solution of an estimating equation . Its population functional solves . Put and , assumed finite and nonzero. Differentiating the contaminated population equation givessince the unperturbed expected score is zero. HenceUnder differentiability, consistency and the uniform local laws needed for expansion of the empirical equation,The central limit theorem now yields asymptotic normality with sandwich variance of an M-estimatorThus the leading variance of itself is the displayed variance divided by . For a vector parameter, replace by the derivative matrix and use .
In a location model with known scale , choose . For a symmetric reference distribution, an odd score is Fisher consistent. With and positive , the formulas becomeThe Gaussian likelihood score gives the efficient sample mean under normality, but its unbounded influence is vulnerable to large outliers. The Huber score is linear centrally and bounded in the tails, balancing normal-model efficiency against contamination sensitivity. Its denominator is for a continuous law. The sign score gives the median and needs a nonsmooth derivation using the density at the median, rather than incorrectly setting its ordinary derivative to zero. Redescending scores can reject very extreme observations, but may have multiple roots and require a consistent root-selection rule.
Thus appropriate choices seek Fisher consistency, a nonzero stable derivative, finite variance, reasonable reference-model efficiency and bounded influence. Robust scale estimation may be needed for the tuning constant; joint location-scale estimation uses the matrix influence calculation rather than treating an estimated scale as known. Bounded influence describes local robustness and is not by itself a global breakdown point theorem.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 223 1 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Put . The standardized efficient score function for scale isAn optimal B-robust scale M-estimator solveswhere the optimal bounded score has the clipped-score formThe constants enforce Fisher consistency, the chosen normalization, and the clipping bound on the influence function.
For the standard normal distribution, , hence . The score therefore simplifies towith chosen so that for .