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Gaussian autoregressive conditional precision

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Time series Autoregressive moving-average model Autoregressive model Autoregressive process of order one
2026-10-05  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a stationary unit-variance normal distribution autoregression with coefficient a∈(−1,1), its vector of length T≥2 has precision matrix J that is tridiagonal: the two endpoint diagonal entries are 1/(1−a2), interior entries are (1+a2)/(1−a2), and adjacent off-diagonal entries are −a/(1−a2). An independent observation r=λZ+η, with covariance vI, updates precision and information vector to
Q=J+λ2v−1I,h=λv−1r.
(1)
The conditional law is multivariate normal distribution N(Q−1h,Q−1).

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  1. Autoregressive process of order one
  2. Autoregressive model
  3. Autoregressive moving-average model
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / iii / Paper 216 / 3 / b / i / Solution

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