Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 ib Paper 4 3H Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the number of failures in mix . The total observed failures are among blocks. Equal marginal failure probabilities give , regardless of dependence within a mix. Thus the unbiased estimator based on grouped Bernoulli failure counts isFor a conventional binomial confidence interval, additionally assume independent block outcomes. Then the total has binomial distribution and the estimated standard error is . The normal approximation gives the approximate 95 percent intervalOne can instead obtain an exact, generally conservative binomial interval by solving and for the two endpoints. These equations invert binomial tail tests.
Equal marginal probabilities alone do not imply independent blocks. If the mixes are independent but blocks within a mix can be dependent, use the sample variance of the 100 counts. Here and , so . The estimated variance of is ; its standard error is , giving the large-sample interval approximately . If even between-mix independence is absent, no stated model justifies either numerical coverage claim. The estimate remains unbiased, but the uncertainty calculation needs its sampling assumptions.