Binary Markov source 2026-10-14
Take the alphabet , fair initial bit , and transition matrix
The stationary distribution is . Every emitted symbol is a fair bit, while the next symbol flips the previous one with probability . For , repeating the previous symbol is the better one-step prediction; for , predicting its opposite is better. The resulting minimum next-symbol error probability is , compared with when no history is used.
Given either state, the next-symbol information entropy is . Thus
At , the best next-symbol prediction succeeds with probability , and the entropy rate is about bits per symbol. The adjacent symbols share mutual information bits. This is useful structure even though the single-symbol counts reveal no bias.
Figure 1.
A persistent fair-bit source reveals its new randomness through the flip sequence
. Original simulated sample paths with a fixed random seed. The top row is a stationary binary Markov source with ; the middle row records innovations in a binary Markov source, marking whether each symbol differs from its predecessor. The bottom row is an independent fair-bit comparison. The marginal theoretical probabilities are for both displayed source processes; finite empirical counts need not be exactly equal. These traces illustrate the stipulated models and are not measured data or a proof of the entropy rate. Details.
At , the random initial bit is repeated forever; at , it alternates forever. Both have and zero entropy rate. At , the symbols are independent and identically distributed fair bits, giving entropy rate one. Zero rate therefore need not mean that the initial choice was deterministic.