Binary Markov source 2026-10-14
Take the alphabet , fair initial bit , and transition matrixThe stationary distribution is . Every emitted symbol is a fair bit, while the next symbol flips the previous one with probability . For , repeating the previous symbol is the better one-step prediction; for , predicting its opposite is better. The resulting minimum next-symbol error probability is , compared with when no history is used.
Given either state, the next-symbol information entropy is . ThusAt , the best next-symbol prediction succeeds with probability , and the entropy rate is about bits per symbol. The adjacent symbols share mutual information bits. This is useful structure even though the single-symbol counts reveal no bias.
At , the random initial bit is repeated forever; at , it alternates forever. Both have and zero entropy rate. At , the symbols are independent and identically distributed fair bits, giving entropy rate one. Zero rate therefore need not mean that the initial choice was deterministic.
