Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 42 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write and for the individual and total score functions. Under the usual regularity assumptions, and , the nonsingular per-observation Fisher information matrix. The central limit theorem and weak law of large numbers giveRearranging the stipulated score expansion, including its remainder, givesSlutsky theorem therefore proves the asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator:A consistent plug-in Fisher information matrix yields the Wald statistic . Under the null hypothesis, , so a test of asymptotic size rejects when exceeds the quantile of that chi-squared distribution. A consistent Observed Fisher information matrix gives the same limiting test.
With an -dimensional parameter of interest and nuisance parameter , partition accordingly. The marginal asymptotic covariance matrix of is the block of , whose inverse is the efficient informationThus the nuisance-adjusted Wald statistic is , with limiting null distribution . Using alone is generally incorrect when the nuisance parameter is estimated; it is valid when the cross-information vanishes.
For the Inverse Gaussian distribution in this problem, expand the exponent to obtain the log likelihood, up to terms independent of both parameters,Its score functions areFor each positive , the first score changes sign from positive to negative at , so this is the global maximizing mean parameter of an exponential family. Substituting it in the second score givesThe reciprocal function is strictly convex, so the denominator is positive for a nonconstant sample. The profile log likelihood is strictly concave in and tends to minus infinity at both endpoints, proving this is a maximum. Under continuous model sampling, a sample of size at least two is nonconstant almost surely. For a constant sample, including a one-observation sample, no finite joint maximum-likelihood estimator exists: the likelihood increases without bound as at .
For one observation, differentiating again and using givesThis parameter orthogonality proves that estimating does not reduce the efficient information for . The Wald statistic has the same algebraic form in the two cases:Using information evaluated at instead is another first-order equivalent convention.
The printed claim of coincidence needs a first-order interpretation. Known and unknown need not give numerically identical Wald statistics, because their maximum-likelihood estimators differ. With known, direct maximization givesFor example, observations and known give and . At , the displayed Wald convention gives and , respectively. Thus exact equality is false. Under the null hypothesis, however, , hence . Their centered, standardized estimates differ by , so their Wald statistics differ by . This is the valid asymptotic coincidence supplied by inverse Gaussian shape estimation and nuisance orthogonality.