Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 77 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
With fixed, the asymptotic family is the scaled sumAn unscaled fixed random variable alone has no diverging parameter for a large deviation principle; this scaling is the continuation of part (a). Suppose first and put . Independence and the product large-deviation principle give the vector rateAddition is continuous, so the contraction principle for large deviations givesFor every feasible vector has cost at least , where . Equality holds by assigning all scaled excess to an index attaining . For the constraint set is empty. ThusEquivalently, the coefficient is with . On the exponential scale the rare large sum is carried by a variable having the slowest geometric tail. Several equal slowest tails can change polynomial prefactors, but not this rate function. This is the large deviations of a fixed sum of geometric random variables.
As a direct check of the tail exponent, for each the moment-generating function of the sum is finite, so the Chernoff bound gives an upper rate at most for . Letting gives . For a lower neighborhood bound, keep all other variables at fixed finite values and let a slowest-tail variable take an integer near ; its probability has rate . If some , their deterministic contributions disappear after division by , so minimize over the nondeterministic variables. If all , the rate is zero only at zero and infinite elsewhere.