For fixed , a geometric mutation count in a coalescent epoch with mean has third moment . The centered absolute third moment is at most , so its sum is . The total variance is asymptotic to , making the Lyapunov condition with hold. Rescaling by the harmonic sum gives the displayed limit. At the estimator is identically zero and the limit is degenerate. The variance of the Watterson estimator decreases only logarithmically with sample size at a fixed nonrecombining locus.
Lyapunov condition Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-11-05
For independent centered random variables with total variance , the Lyapunov condition requires the displayed expression to tend to zero for some . The inequality implies the Lindeberg condition after normalization. The Lindeberg-Feller central limit theorem then makes the normalized sum converge to the standard normal distribution.
For fixed , use the Lyapunov condition for the independent centered epoch counts . Their total variance is .
Write . Differentiating the geometric distribution probability generating function gives . Since , the sum of the centered absolute third moments is . Consequently
The Lindeberg-Feller central limit theorem applies through the Lyapunov condition, giving . Now , so the Slutsky theorem proves the asymptotic normality of the Watterson estimator:
The limiting variance is . When , every count vanishes and the limiting law is the point mass at zero.