Exponential-affine bond pricing Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
If a discrete-time martingale deflator obeys for an affine process , unit zero-coupon bonds have exponential-affine prices. For one-step coefficients , the recursion is , , .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 39 2 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Interpret the exponential distribution change time as an exogenous time independent of the stock's Brownian motion, or, equivalently for this calculation, as having constant conditional intensity while the rate remains high. Its marginal distribution alone would not imply that conditional intensity if the change time carried information about stock returns. Write , , , and let be the prechange value function.
Over a short interval , a rate change occurs with probability and changes continuation value from to . The dynamic programming equation is consequentlyThis jump term distinguishes the exponential interest-rate switch from a permanent higher bank rate.
By the homogeneity of CRRA utility, put , with . Differentiating the strictly concave expressions in and givesThe optimized consumption terms contribute , and the optimized investment terms contribute . With , the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation reduces toEquivalently,The left side is continuous and strictly increasing for , with limits zero and infinity. Thus gives one and only one positive root. This scalar equation is an explicit characterization for arbitrary real ; elementary closed forms are not generally available. For example, when ,Use until the rate changes, and afterwards. If the two rates coincide, the root is ; as tends to infinity, it also tends to .
For a direct attainability check, use the proposed prechange constant fractions. The geometric Brownian motion moment is on the prechange evolution. Conditioning on the independent exponential distribution time therefore givesThe denominator is positive because the scalar equation gives . Hence the candidate policy actually achieves the stated value.
One can also verify the upper bound for both signs of without relying on a sign-sensitive terminal-value argument. Let be the current regime, the candidate portfolio wealth, andIf and , the Itô formula and the scalar equation givewhere the jump term stops after the switch and continuous coefficients are understood predictably. Thus is a positive martingale deflator: for any admissible portfolio wealth , the process is a nonnegative local martingale. It follows thatFor the candidate policy, . Indeed its surviving prechange term decays at rate , and its postchange terms decay at rate ; integrating over the switch time preserves convergence to zero. The finite-time moment computations also make its budget equality exact. Consequently . Apply the concave supporting-tangent inequalityand integrate in time and expectation. The budget inequality proves that no admissible policy exceeds the candidate. This verifies the value function, including when .
Both and are needed for a finite prechange answer. If the postchange value is already infinite, that problem persists after the almost surely finite switch. If but , then for a small constant prechange consumption fraction makes the expected utility function before the switch diverge, or makes its supremum diverge when . For , the optimal no-consumption terminal moment before the switch is ; withdrawals only increase this negative-power moment. The expected magnitude of the negative postchange continuation utility function therefore contains the divergent integral . Thus these cases yield respectively or , rather than a positive-root solution.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 40 3 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use the conditional second-moment matrix from the PDF. By part (b), the filtration is finite-state at every finite time. On a time- atom let be the successor price vectors and their conditional probabilities. Then andPositive definiteness gives rank , so . Hence , and the successor vectors have linear independence.
We use the finite-horizon fundamental theorem of asset pricing in deflator form: an arbitrage-free finite market admits a strictly positive adapted process , with , such that is a martingale. Equivalently, on every step,Fix a finite horizon containing the step in question. On the parent atom, write on successor and . ThenThe proposed values satisfy precisely the same equation:Because the have linear independence and the are positive, this linear system has a unique solution. Thus , provingThis is the positive regression deflator in a complete finite market. It also proves the suggested conclusion: with and ,Hence is a strictly positive martingale deflator. Finite-state structure makes these expectations integrable on each finite horizon. Positive definiteness alone would not ensure positivity of the regression factor; market completeness and the positive deflator are essential.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 211 3 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
A unit-face-value zero-coupon bond pays at maturity. The martingale deflator pricing identity isUse the affine process Markov property with respect to the market filtration; if that filtration contains extra predictive information, the natural Markov property alone would not suffice. Part (b), with every future coefficient equal to , gives the exponential-affine form. More explicitly, the exponential-affine bond pricing recursion isIndeed, conditioning the first future step in an -step horizon transforms into . ThereforeThis uses the true martingale deflator pricing identity; a merely local martingale deflator would not by itself justify replacing prices by conditional terminal expectations.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 211 2 a Solution 2026-09-28
The discrete-time fundamental theorem of asset pricing supplies a strictly positive martingale deflator . Since the maturity- bond pays one unit at , its deflated price is a martingale:Division by gives the formula.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 211 5 a Solution 2026-09-28
A predictable strategy is self-financing when its wealth satisfiesIt is admissible when its wealth obeys the stipulated lower bound, here taken to be nonnegative. A strictly positive Itô process is a martingale deflator when every deflated asset price is a local martingale.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 211 1 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
A martingale deflator is a strictly positive adapted process such that every deflated cum-dividend asset gain has zero conditional drift:Using the definitions of and ,The holdings are -measurable, so the right side is a martingale transform of the deflated asset-gain local martingale. Hence is a local martingale.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 211 1 c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The fundamental theorem of asset pricing says, in this discrete-time formulation, that the market has no arbitrage if and only if it admits a strictly positive martingale deflator. Under a chosen positive numeraire this is equivalent to the existence of an equivalent martingale measure for numeraire-discounted gains.
Positive regression deflator in a complete finite market Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be positive definite. Market completeness restricts each parent atom to at most successors, while positive definiteness forces exactly independent successor price vectors. The positive martingale deflator supplied by the fundamental theorem of asset pricing then has the unique one-step ratio . Its product deflates the prices into martingales.