Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 207 4 d Solution 2026-09-28
The quantities act as event-count residuals. Requiring their sum to vanish calibrates the fitted total number of events to the observed total, just as an intercept score equation calibrates fitted means. This is the aggregate zero-residual property of a martingale residual.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 207 4 b Solution 2026-09-28
A martingale residual is observed minus model-expected event count:where is the fitted individual cumulative hazard. Under an adequate model it estimates the terminal value of a counting-process martingale.
Fit a model omitting the continuous explanatory variable , plot against , and add a flexible smooth curve. A curve fluctuating around zero without structure supports omission. A monotone or curved trend indicates that event incidence still depends on , suggesting inclusion of or a nonlinear transformation of it. The residuals are highly skewed, so the smoothed trend is more informative than an assumption of Gaussian scatter.