Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 216 2 b Solution 2026-09-28
Multiplying the exponential family likelihood by its natural conjugate prior givesThus the posterior remains in the same family, with updated hyperparametersUnder quadratic loss, the Bayes estimator under squared error loss is the posterior mean. Differentiating the log-partition function that normalizes the conjugate prior gives