Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 204 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
First obtain a polynomial critical one-arm upper bound from part (a). Fix a sufficiently large integer radius . Use rotated-coordinate boxes for this geometric construction, in the axes of part (a). Surround by a square ring inside . It can be assembled from the four stripsThe first two require horizontal dual crossings; the last two require vertical dual crossings. Their corner overlaps are squares, so the adjacent long crossings intersect there and their union contains a dual graph cycle surrounding the inner box. Translate the strips by the half-lattice displacement of the planar dual graph and adjust the endpoints by one lattice unit if needed. All aspect ratios remain bounded. Part (a) and the same overlap gluing give a uniform lower bound for each dual crossing at . Applying the Harris-FKG inequality to these decreasing events in the primal configuration gives a closed dual circuit with probability at least . We may replace by a smaller number in .
Use the independent annular barriers for percolation at radii . Their supporting edge sets are disjoint, so the circuit events are independent. In the original unrotated coordinates, lies inside and the ring still separates the origin from infinity. These fixed geometric comparisons let us bound the original . An open graph path from to distance must avoid every such closed dual circuit inside . Thus, for some constants and ,where the first bound is used only when at least one of the indicated rings fits; increasing handles smaller .
Now let and use the monotone coupling of Bernoulli percolation on edges. The event only needs edges whose endpoints lie in , because a first boundary hit gives an internal graph path. There are exactly such edges. Each changes state between parameters and with probability . The union bound therefore gives the finite-box comparison for percolation parametersFor sufficiently small , choose , so that is at least half the unrounded value. Both terms then have order . In particular,for a finite . Increase to cover the remaining compact range of parameters by . This near-critical percolation power upper bound requires only a positive crossing constant, not the exact value of a critical exponent. It also implies through the critical one-arm probability bound.