Nonlinear regression fits a conditional mean whose dependence on its parameters is nonlinear. In a normal distribution observation model, the likelihood is based on residuals . Nonlinearity can create parameter trade-offs, asymmetric uncertainty and several posterior regions, so prior predictive checks and Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence diagnostics can be especially useful.

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Nonlinear regression is a type of regression analysis in which the relationship between the independent variable(s) and the dependent variable is modeled as a nonlinear function. Unlike linear regression, which assumes a straight-line relationship (a linear equation) between the variables, nonlinear regression allows for more complex relationships, accommodating curves and other non-linear shapes.