Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The P-star approximation describes the sampling density of a regular maximum-likelihood estimator in sample coordinates consisting of the fitted parameter and a suitable ancillary statistic . For a -dimensional parameter, write for the log-likelihood expressed in these coordinates, and for the fitted observed information. The approximation isThe determinant factor supplies the local volume scale, while the exponential retains the full likelihood ratio, rather than replacing it by a quadratic. The normalizing constant is chosen by integrating over the fitted-parameter coordinates; its leading regular large-sample value is . These ingredients arise from a statistical saddlepoint approximation. Their use requires an interior, locally unique fit, nonsingular information and suitable smoothness; an ancillary statistic specifies the conditioning surface when the fit alone does not exhaust the relevant sample coordinates. In a regular model the unnormalized leading expression has relative error of order locally; normalization and conditioning matter for refined inference. It is not a universal exact density. Under a smooth one-to-one parameter transformation, the Hessian at the fit transforms without a score term, so its determinant supplies precisely the density Jacobian determinant. This proves the invariance of the construction under one-to-one changes of statistical parameters.
Here put and . The log-likelihood, apart from a data-only constant, isThe two score equations giveThe sample sums form a sufficient statistic, and there is no need to retain an additional ancillary in calculating their joint density. Inverting the fitted coordinates gives and . With parameter order , the fitted observed information isAlso,Thus the required joint P-star approximation isTo integrate out , substitute inTaking and rearranging the powers yieldsThe beta function identity therefore givesBoth normalized approximations are actually exact. To check the joint assertion independently, and have independent gamma distributions with shape and rates and . Their joint density is . The inverse-coordinate Jacobian determinant iswhich reproduces the normalized joint expression. This is the P-star density for two exponential rates; its marginal gives the stated F-distribution. Stirling's approximation gives , so using only the leading normalizer retains the exact shape but not its exact total mass.