Past exam of the developmental science course of the year 2 of the psychology (experimental) course of the University of Oxford / 2022 / 3 / Solution

Greater transparency and reproducibility have changed developmental psychology's estimates, measurement practices and theoretical confidence, but have not simply replaced a collection of “true” findings with “false” ones. Computational reproducibility asks whether the same data and documented analysis yield the same result. Scientific replication asks what happens with new observations. Preregistration makes planned tests distinguishable from exploratory choices; open materials permit checking whether ostensibly similar studies actually use the same procedure. None of these, by itself, guarantees construct validity or representative sampling.

The marshmallow task illustrates a substantive change in interpretation. Walter Mischel's early experiments offered preschoolers a smaller immediate reward or a preferred delayed reward and manipulated how attention was directed during waiting. Distraction increased delay. The original experimental programme therefore already showed sensitivity to cognitive strategy and setting, rather than a fixed quantity of virtue revealed by a treat. Later predictive associations are a different claim from those immediate experimental effects.^[ref]

Tyler W. Watts and colleagues revisited long-term prediction in a larger and more diverse cohort. Their 2018 conceptual replication used a waiting task at fifty-four months and adolescent achievement outcomes. Associations were substantially reduced after adjustment for family background, early cognitive abilities and the home environment; much of the achievement difference was concentrated at the lowest waiting times. An important measurement difference was the seven-minute ceiling, rather than treating all waiting tasks as interchangeable. These results weaken a simple causal story in which training a preschooler to wait longer should, by itself, transform later attainment. They do not show that self-regulation never matters, because adjustment can remove both confounding and potentially meaningful pathways.^[ref]

Celeste Kidd and colleagues supplied experimental evidence for one alternative mechanism: environmental reliability. Before the waiting task, children encountered an adult who either fulfilled or failed promises about appealing materials. Children subsequently waited longer after reliable experiences. The observation matters because apparent “poor self-control” can be an understandable response to expecting that a promised reward will not arrive. This small experiment supports contextual causation under its own conditions, not a claim that all socioeconomic differences in waiting are caused by trust. Together, the studies shift the target from an isolated child trait to the interaction between control, expectations and circumstances.^[ref]

Neonatal imitation illustrates why replicability also depends on the inferential contrast. Andrew N. Meltzoff and M. Keith Moore's 1977 report described very young infants matching facial and manual gestures. In this paradigm an adult models an action and infant responses are recorded and coded; the crucial question is whether the infant produces a given action preferentially after its matching model, not merely whether the action occurs. An increase in tongue protrusion after interesting stimulation is insufficient unless appropriate nonmatching controls exclude general arousal or exploration.^[ref]

Janine Oostenbroek and colleagues tested 106 infants longitudinally with nine social and two nonsocial models at one, three, six and nine weeks. Their broad comparisons did not support model-specific imitation, although restricted cross-sections could resemble earlier positive findings. This challenged a general innate-imitation account and highlighted the consequences of selecting particular gestures, ages and contrasts after observing results. Yet the study's breadth also created substantive questions about fatigue, presentation and how each action was scored.^[ref]

The subsequent requested-data reanalysis by Meltzoff and colleagues reported tongue-protrusion matching under pooled-control contrasts and criticised features of the elicitation and scoring procedures. That was not an independent replication: it reused the same observations. It nevertheless shows the scientific value of access to raw data. The disagreement became one about estimands, comparison sets and measurement sensitivity that another preregistered experiment could adjudicate, rather than an unsupported declaration that one team must be wrong. Evidence for one gesture would also not automatically vindicate a broad, domain-specific imitation mechanism.^[ref]

ManyBabies 1 provides a constructive counterexample to the notion that open developmental research only dismantles effects. In a Registered report, an international collaboration used common speech stimuli and prespecified analyses to test infant-directed versus adult-directed speech preferences. The final sample included 2,329 infants from 67 laboratories. A preference for infant-directed speech survived, while its magnitude varied with age, language experience and measurement method. Laboratories used central fixation, head-turn preference or eye tracking procedures, making methodological variability an object of analysis. The result supports a reproducible average preference without treating the same effect size as universal for every infant or cultural setting.^[ref]

Several changes to our understanding follow. First, an established group-level tendency can coexist with weak prediction for an individual child. Secondly, stimulus choice, stopping rules, exclusions and coding decisions can change what has actually been measured. Thirdly, heterogeneous outcomes can identify theoretically useful boundary conditions, but a moderator discovered after a failure needs a new test rather than serving as an unlimited excuse. Finally, openly available null results reduce selective visibility of successful studies, improving the evidential base used to build developmental accounts.

The causal claim about reform itself should remain modest. Larger samples, broader recruitment and better controls often accompany transparency, so a change in an estimate cannot be attributed uniquely to preregistration. A perfectly reproducible analysis can reproduce a biased model, and an underpowered replication may be inconclusive. Reliability and measurement equivalence are especially important for looking-time and single-trial child tasks; independent coding and predefined exclusion rules help, but do not establish the intended psychological construct. Open child data also require appropriate consent and controlled access where identification is possible; useful transparency need not mean publishing recognisable videos.

By 2022, these developments justified a more conditional developmental science: waiting reflects more than a decontextualised trait; claims of newborn action matching require precise controls; and an infant speech preference can be robust while method-sensitive. The main advance is a tighter connection between a theoretical claim, an explicitly defined measure and evidence that others can inspect or independently test. Transparency changes what can be learned from disagreement, while replication establishes how far a finding travels.