Past exam of the digital social research: statistics core course of the University of Oxford / 2021 / 1 / a

Let ${\mu }_0,{\mu }_1$ be the population means of the numerical vaccination intention score in the two recorded groups. The two-sided hypothesis test comparesThe sample means are $13.48553$ and $13.46565$, giving a difference of sample means of approximately 0.01988 score points, in the order group zero minus group one. The reported group counts are 1,866 and 262; seven observations have a missing group indicator.

Welch's t-test divides that estimated difference by its estimated standard error. Its reported test statistic is $t=0.055032$, with approximately $344.43$ statistical degrees of freedom. This is an unequal-variance comparison; fractional statistical degrees of freedom are appropriate for the Welch approximation. The two groups need not have equal sample sizes or equal population variances.^[ref]

The reported p-value is $0.9561$. Under the specified equal-mean null hypothesis and sampling model, a p-value measures the probability of a result at least as extreme as the observed one. It is not a posterior probability that the null hypothesis is true. There is no rejection at a prespecified 5% significance level. The observed difference of sample means is tiny relative to its estimated standard error.

The 95% confidence interval is approximatelyIt includes zero and differences in either direction. The interval's coverage refers to repeated use of the procedure under its assumptions, rather than to a probability assigned to this fixed unknown parameter or to the spread of individual scores. Nonrejection does not establish that the two population means are identical.

Simple random sampling supports the sampling interpretation, but the score is bounded and its raw distribution need not be a normal distribution. The large group sizes can support an approximate normal sampling distribution of the sample means under regularity conditions. The supplied observational study does not identify a causal explanation of any difference, and the numeric coding of the group labels creates no biological or ordinal interpretation.