Past exam of the mathematical and Computational Biology course of the University of Cambridge / 2024 / Paper 1 / C5 / e / Solution

The observed folded site frequency spectrum has a larger $3:1$ to $2:2$ ratio than either expectation in part (d), and is closer to the Yule process expectation than to the constant-size Kingman's coalescent expectation. Both models can nevertheless produce deviations in one finite sample, especially because all mitochondrial sites largely share one genealogy; this observation alone is not a formal model-selection result.

For the Yule process, one possible violation is a recent reduction in the per-lineage branching rate rather than a constant $\lambda$. Lengthening the terminal four-branch interval adds one-descendant branch length and therefore preferentially increases the $3:1$ class.

For Kingman's coalescent, one possible violation is recent population expansion rather than a constant effective population size. Backward in time, coalescence is slow in the large recent population and faster in the smaller ancestral population. The resulting long external branches tend to increase the $3:1$ class relative to the $2:2$ class.