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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2002 / iii / Paper 40 / 2 / a / i

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 40 2 a
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Assume independent samples Xi​∼g, ∫f∣θ∣<∞, and g>0 wherever fθ can contribute. The importance weight is w(x)=f(x)/g(x), and the ordinary importance sampling estimator is
μ​g​=n1​i=1∑n​θ(Xi​)g(Xi​)f(Xi​)​.​
(1)
Its expectation is ∫θ(x)f(x)dx=μ, by cancellation of g in the expectation integral. The strong law of large numbers gives almost-sure convergence to μ. Common probability support is sufficient; the precise support condition for importance sampling only requires covering the nonzero integrand for this particular expectation.

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