Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2003 / iii / Paper 38 / 4 / Solution

Use $\alpha$ for the intercept, to avoid confusing it with the observation means. Let $e_i=\exp (\hat{\alpha }+{\hat{\beta }}^T{x}_i)$ be the fitted Poisson regression mean. Apart from constants, its log-likelihood isAt a finite interior maximum-likelihood estimate, the intercept score equation gives the Poisson regression margin-matching score equations:The statistical saturated model fits each mean to $y_i$, taking the boundary mean zero if $y_i=0$. Subtracting fitted from saturated log-likelihood gives the Poisson devianceThe intercept balance cancels the sum of linear terms. ConsequentlyThe unsimplified formula makes nonnegativity transparent; individual terms in the simplified formula need not each be positive.

For the deviance goodness-of-fit test, if the fitted design has rank $r$, compare a suitably calibrated $D$ with ${\chi }_{n-r}^2$, rejecting for large values. This approximation applies in a regular large-count regime, such as a fixed set of cells with increasing exposure and positive fitted proportions. It is not automatically accurate for many sparse Poisson observations. Check residual patterns and overdispersion; where the approximation is doubtful, simulate independent Poisson random variables with fitted means, refit each sample, and use a parametric bootstrap distribution of the same statistic. A large p-value means no detected lack of fit, not proof of the model. If a finite interior estimate fails to exist, the score proof needs a boundary-limit interpretation; for example all-zero data give a supremum with every fitted mean tending to zero and limiting deviance zero.