Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2007 / ia / Paper 2 / 11F / i / Solution

The statement is true. Put $C_k={\bigcap }_{r=1}^k{A}_r$. The assumed $P(C_{n-1})>0$ ensures that every conditioning event $C_{k-1}$, $2\le k\le n$, has positive probability. By the definition of conditional probability,Multiplying makes the fractions telescope, givingThis proves the chain rule for probabilities here without any assumption of independence. The final numerator $P(C_n)$ may be zero; all denominators remain positive.