Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2008 / iii / Paper 34 / 2

For events $A_n$, define their limit superior byIt is the event that infinitely many $A_n$ occur. The two Borel-Cantelli lemmas are as follows: if ${\sum }_n\mathbb{P}(A_n)<\infty$, then $\mathbb{P}(A_{\infty })=0$, without any independence assumption; if the $A_n$ are independent and ${\sum }_n\mathbb{P}(A_n)=\infty$, then $\mathbb{P}(A_{\infty })=1$.

For the first assertion, the union bound gives, for every $N$,The tail of a convergent nonnegative series tends to zero, proving the first Borel-Cantelli lemma.

For the second assertion, independence and $1-u\le e^{-u}$ for $0\le u\le 1$ giveBy continuity of probability, $\mathbb{P}({\bigcap }_{n\ge N}{A}_n^c)=0$. The event that only finitely many $A_n$ occur is the countable union of these zero-probability events over $N$. Its probability is zero. This proves the second Borel-Cantelli lemma, and hence both requested assertions:

Write $Q(x)=1-\Phi (x)={\int }_x^{\infty }\varphi (t)dt$, where $\varphi (t)=(2\pi {)}^{-1/2}{e}^{-t^2/2}$ is the standard normal density. For $x>0$, ${\varphi }^{\prime }(t)=-t\varphi (t)$ and integration by parts yieldThe boundary term at infinity vanishes. The remainder is nonnegative and is at most $Q(x)/x^2$, soDividing by the positive quantity $\varphi (x)/x$ gives lower and upper bounds $x^2/(x^2+1)$ and $1$. The squeeze theorem proves the Mills ratio asymptotic

For $a>0$ and $n\ge 2$, let $A_n(a)=\{X_n^2>a\log n\}$. Symmetry of the standard normal distribution and the Mills ratio asymptotic just proved giveFor $a>2$ the series of these probabilities converges, since its terms are eventually bounded by a constant times the convergent p-series $n^{-a/2}$. For $0<a<2$ it diverges: choose $r$ strictly between $a/2$ and one, and use $(\log n{)}^{-1/2}\ge n^{-(r-a/2)}$ for sufficiently large $n$, reducing to the divergent p-series $n^{-r}$. At $a=2$ it still diverges, as the integral test givesFor $a>2$, the first Borel-Cantelli lemma makes $A_n(a)$ occur only finitely often. For $0<a\le 2$, independence of the random variables makes the events $A_n(a)$ independent, so the second Borel-Cantelli lemma makes them occur infinitely often almost surely. Apply these conclusions simultaneously at $a=2+1/k$ for positive integers $k$, and at $a=2$. On the resulting probability-one event, the limit superior is at most every $2+1/k$ and at least two. Therefore the Gaussian sample limsup at logarithmic scale is