Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2008 / iii / Paper 34 / 5

A family $(Y_i{)}_{i\in I}$ of integrable random variables is uniformly integrable ifThis controls the contributions of large values uniformly over the family, rather than merely bounding its L1 norms.

Put $X_n=\mathbb{E}[Z\mid {\mathcal{F}}_n]$ and $A_n(K)=\{|X_n|>K\}\in {\mathcal{F}}_n$. The conditional Jensen inequality gives $|X_n|\le \mathbb{E}[|Z|\mid {\mathcal{F}}_n]$, hence $\mathbb{E}|X_n|\le \mathbb{E}|Z|$. The Markov inequality therefore givesUsing the measurability of $A_n(K)$ in the defining integral identity for conditional expectation, for every $R>0$ we getThe first term tends to zero as $R\to \infty$ because $Z$ is integrable, by the dominated convergence theorem. Given $\epsilon >0$, first choose $R$ to make it less than $\epsilon /2$, then choose $K$ to make the second term less than $\epsilon /2$. These choices work for every $n$. This proves uniform integrability of conditional expectations:In fact the argument works for an arbitrary family of sigma-algebras; nesting is not needed for this conclusion.

Values at the endpoint one do not affect any of the conclusions, since $\mathbb{P}(U=1)=0$. Set $b_n(1)=1$ to define each random variable everywhere, and choose a Borel measurable function agreeing with $f$ almost everywhere if necessary. These choices leave all integrals and almost-sure assertions unchanged.

Every dyadic interval at level $n+1$ lies in a dyadic interval at level $n$. Equivalently, $b_n(U)$ is a measurable function of $b_{n+1}(U)$, so ${\mathcal{F}}_n\subseteq {\mathcal{F}}_{n+1}$: these sigma-algebras form a filtration. Since the uniform distribution of $U$ gives $\mathbb{E}|f(U)|={\int }_0^1|f(u)|du<\infty$, the conditional expectations $X_n=\mathbb{E}[f(U)\mid {\mathcal{F}}_n]$ are integrable and adapted. The tower property of conditional expectation givesThus $(X_n)$ is a martingale, and part (a) proves that it is uniformly integrable.

For $I_{n,k}=[k{2}^{-n},(k+1)2^{-n})$, the event $\{U\in I_{n,k}\}$ is an atom of a sigma-algebra ${\mathcal{F}}_n$, with probability $2^{-n}$. The value of the conditional expectation there is thereforeConsequently $\boxed{X_n=f_n(U)\text{ almost surely}.}$ This also shows directly that ${\int }_0^1|f_n|\le {\int }_0^1|f|$.

By the uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem, there is an integrable $Y$ such that $X_n\to Y$ almost surely and in the L1 norm. To identify this limit, put ${\mathcal{F}}_{\infty }=\sigma ({\bigcup }_n{\mathcal{F}}_n)$. Since $0\le U-b_n(U)<2^{-n}$ away from the harmless endpoint, $U={\lim }_n{b}_n(U)$, and $U$ is ${\mathcal{F}}_{\infty }$-measurable. Conversely every $b_n(U)$ is a measurable function of $U$. Thus ${\mathcal{F}}_{\infty }=\sigma (U)$, and both $Y$ and $f(U)$ have ${\mathcal{F}}_{\infty }$-measurable versions.

For $A\in {\mathcal{F}}_m$, the defining property of conditional expectation gives $\mathbb{E}[X_n{1}_A]=\mathbb{E}[f(U)1_A]$ whenever $n\ge m$. Passing to the limit in the L1 norm yieldsThe increasing union ${\bigcup }_m{\mathcal{F}}_m$ is an algebra of sets generating ${\mathcal{F}}_{\infty }$. The class of events for which this integral identity holds is a Dynkin system, so the pi-lambda theorem extends the identity to every $A\in {\mathcal{F}}_{\infty }$. Since both random variables are measurable there, uniqueness of conditional expectation gives $Y=f(U)$ almost surely. We have proved that the dyadic conditional averages recover integrable functions:because a probability-one assertion for $U$ is a full-Lebesgue measure assertion for $x$. Likewise, the uniform distribution of $U$ turns convergence in L1 intoNo pointwise continuity of $f$ is required.