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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2011 / ia / Paper 2 / 11F / e

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2011 ia Paper 2 Section II 11F
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e
Now the event is to hit 20 before 1, starting at 3. Up to the first of those two hitting times, translate the interval by one unit; its endpoints become 0,19 and the starting point becomes 2. The gambler's ruin hitting probability is therefore
P3​(T20​<T1​)=20−13−1​=192​.​
(1)
Stopping at 1 is essential: using the original absorbing endpoint 0 would answer a different event.

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