Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2014 / iii / Paper 33 / 6 / b / i

There are two different effect scales in this zero-inflated Poisson regression. The count component describes the mean $\mu$ conditional on belonging to the susceptible component, including its possible zero outcomes. Its logarithmic link function coefficients exponentiate to ratios of those conditional means. The zero component describes the structural-zero probability $\pi$; its logit coefficients exponentiate to odds ratios, not probability ratios.

Holding the other covariates fixed, Centre B versus Centre A changes the susceptible count mean by the factoran increase of about $54.4\%$. It simultaneously multiplies the odds of being a structural zero byThus Centre B is associated both with higher count intensity among susceptible patients and with greater odds of belonging to the never-at-risk class.

Use no personality disorder as the reference. For women, borderline disorder multiplies the susceptible count mean by $e^{-0.224673}=0.7988$, and other disorder multiplies it by $e^{-1.564576}=0.2092$. Because the count model has sex-by-disorder interaction terms, the corresponding male comparisons must add the interactions before exponentiating:These compare men with the stated disorder to otherwise comparable men without a disorder; the female comparisons use female reference patients. The interaction multipliers $0.7865$ and $4.3157$ alone are ratios of these sex-specific disorder ratios, not the overall male disorder effects.

In the zero component there is no sex-by-disorder interaction. Borderline and other disorders multiply the structural-zero odds relative to no disorder by $0.4217$ and $0.5504$, respectively, holding centre fixed; these comparisons are the same for both sexes in the fitted zero model.

The marginal mean is $E(Y)=(1-\pi )\mu$. Therefore none of these count multipliers alone is the population-average change in expected episodes when the same covariate also changes $\pi$. For a count coefficient change $b$ and zero-logit change $g$ from baseline zero predictor $\eta$, the marginal mean ratio isFor centre use $(b,g)=(0.434635,0.6715)$; for disorder use its sex-specific count contrast and its zero contrast. This is the component and marginal effects in zero-inflated regression distinction needed to interpret these results carefully.