Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2019 / ib / Paper 4 / 19H / c / Solution

Any unbiased linear estimator has the form considered in part (b), and its error is the linear combination of independent normal random variablesThe moment-generating function of a normal distribution therefore gives, for every nonzero real $\theta$,Since the exponential function is strictly increasing and ${\theta }^2{\sigma }^2/2>0$, minimizing this exponential moment is exactly the same as minimizing ${\sum }_i{a}_i^2$. Part (b) shows that the unique minimizer is $a_i=x_i/S_{xx}$. Thus, independently of the sign or magnitude of $\theta$,