Past exam of the MSc in advanced computer science course of the University of Oxford / 2021 / Computational game theory / 1 / b / Solution

No: these two strict comparisons violate the independence axiom for lottery preferences. Let $z$ denote the certain zero-money lottery. Reduction of compound lotteries givesFor example, the second expression assigns probability $(1/4)(4/5)=1/5$ to the nonzero reward and $4/5$ to zero. The claimed ${\ell }_3\succ {\ell }_4$ must therefore implywhich is ${\ell }_1\succ {\ell }_2$, contradicting the other claimed strict preference.

The same obstruction is visible in any proposed expected utility representation. Subtract $u(0)$ from the utility function, and write $a=u(3000)-u(0)$ and $b=u(4000)-u(0)$. The first comparison requires $(1/5)b>(1/4)a$, hence $(4/5)b>a$, whereas the second requires $a>(4/5)b$. No real $a,b$ satisfy both. This argument requires neither risk neutrality nor an assumption that the utility function is increasing in money.