Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 3 / a / iv

The bounded-time optional sampling theorem says that for an integrable discrete-time martingale $(U_n)$ and a bounded stopping time $S$, $\mathbb{E}[U_S]=\mathbb{E}[U_0]$. It requires no assumption about an eventual unbounded stopping time.

Apply this theorem with $S=n\wedge \tau$, or simply take the expectation of the stopped martingale in part (ii). For $N>0$ we obtainSince $P_{n\wedge \tau }\ge 0$,The monotone convergence theorem now yields $\mathbb{E}[\tau ]\le 3abc/N<\infty$. In particular $\tau <\infty$ almost surely, which has been established without assuming that optional stopping is valid at $\tau$.

For each sample path with finite $\tau$, $P_{n\wedge \tau }$ eventually equals $P_{\tau }=0$. Also $0\le P_{n\wedge \tau }\le N^3$. The dominated convergence theorem gives $\mathbb{E}[P_{n\wedge \tau }]\to 0$. Taking the limit of a sequence in the earlier identity therefore provesFor example, initial holdings $(1,1,1)$ give expectation one, as the first transfer must eliminate its giver. This computes the first elimination time, rather than the later time when one player owns all tokens.