Equating marginal mitigation cost to the previous marginal damage givesUsing T˙=κE from the cumulative-emissions approximation,Thus T∝t1/γ at late times and E∝t−(γ−1)/γ. Warming slows but never stops, and cumulative emissions remain unbounded. This follows from a cost model in which zero emissions is infinitely costly and from a marginal-damage rule with constant positive r−g.
EM0W=r−gκγD0WTγ−1,E=κγD0Tγ−1M0(r−g).
Tγ−1T˙=γD0M0(r−g),T(t)γ=T(t0)γ+D0M0(r−g)(t−t0).
The approximation eventually fails if cumulative emissions leave the range of constant TCRE, if large damages suppress economic growth, if technological change alters M0, or if fossil resources and mitigation options impose different limits. The slowly varying-temperature approximation also needs T˙/[T(r−g)]≪1. Thresholds, adaptation, uncertainty and unequal impacts are omitted; the formula is a property of this model rather than a universal policy trajectory.
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