Past exam of the simulation and statistical programming course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 2 / a / iii / Solution

For the proposed joint probability density $\rho$, define the acceptance indicator functionOn the proposal's support the importance weight is $\pi (Y_i,V_i)/\rho (Y_i,V_i)=M{A}_i$. Therefore the requested augmented-space importance sampling estimator isIts expected value is $\theta$, provided ${\mathbb{E}}_p|\varphi (X)|<\infty$. This is not the ordinary estimator $n^{-1}{\sum }_{i}w(Y_i)\varphi (Y_i)$ from question 1. Taking the conditional expectation of this augmented estimator given all $Y_i$ produces that ordinary estimator, because $\mathbb{E}[A_i\mid Y_i]=w(Y_i)/M$. This is the Rao-Blackwell identity for a fixed-denominator rejection estimator.