Bayes estimator under weighted absolute loss 2026-10-14
Under loss , assume . The posterior expected loss is a positive constant times ordinary absolute-error loss under the probability density proportional to . Its minimizers are the medians of that weighted posterior: slopes of the loss change sign where the weighted probability below crosses one half. In particular, relative absolute loss has for positive parameters. For a Gamma distribution posterior of shape two and rate , the weighted posterior is an exponential distribution of rate , so the estimate is .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 ib Paper 4 19H ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
This relative absolute-error loss weights each parameter by . Its posterior expected loss isThe effective density for the Bayes estimator under weighted absolute loss is proportional to , hence an exponential distribution of rate . Its median solves .
More explicitly, for , differentiating the split integrals at gives and . For , the loss has derivative , so its minimum cannot lie there. The unique global minimum is thereforeThis is the weighted posterior median; the ordinary median of the Gamma posterior would minimize unweighted absolute loss and would give a different answer.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 ib Paper 4 19H i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Under squared-error loss, the posterior expected loss decomposes asIt is uniquely minimized by the posterior mean. Integrating the Gamma posterior gives . Hence the Bayes estimator is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 ib Paper 4 19H Solution 2026-10-14
A Bayes estimator minimizes the integrated loss function under the prior and sampling distribution. For a nonnegative loss, Tonelli's theorem and the posterior distribution give the risk decompositionwhere is the marginal density. Thus choosing, for each observed , a measurable minimizer of the posterior expected loss minimizes the integrated risk. Observations of marginal probability zero do not affect the rule.
Here the likelihood is and the prior is on positive parameters. Put . Their product is , and . The marginal density and posterior are thereforeThis Gamma-exponential conjugacy calculation gives a Gamma distribution with shape and rate . It is the posterior, rather than the prior alone, which determines both requested estimators.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 ii Paper 3 27I Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Write and . An equaliser rule has constant risk . An Extended Bayes rule has, for every , a proper prior such that , where . If a rule has both properties, every competitor satisfiesLetting proves that its maximum risk is the minimax risk.
For the given normal distribution model, completing the square in prior times likelihood gives the posterior , with and . Another completion of the square givesThis is maximized uniquely at . Consequently the Bayes act and posterior posterior expected loss areThe posterior loss is independent of , so averaging over the predictive distribution gives the same value for the Bayes risk of this Bayes decision rule.
The sample mean obeys , so its risk is the constant . Take any fixed and let the proper prior precisions . The optimal Bayes risks just calculated tend to , while the integrated risk of is exactly for every prior. Thus its excess Bayes risk tends to zero: it is extended Bayes as well as equaliser. The preceding argument proves
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 ii Paper 3 28L b iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Given , the posterior expected loss from reporting isThis is a strictly convex quadratic in whenever the conditional inverse moment is finite and positive. Differentiating with respect to givesso the Bayes estimator under reciprocal weighted quadratic loss is