Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 43 4 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Given , the sum of the independent yearly counts is : their probability generating functions multiply to . Averaging this conditional law over the prior gives the mixed Poisson distributionThe likelihood for the full vector depends on only through , so is a sufficient statistic; conditioning on the total or on the full observed vector gives the same posterior for .
For an event of positive probability , the posterior density is proportional to . Put . Its mean is . The future count has conditional mean , soThis is the posterior mean from adjacent mixed Poisson probabilities. Both probabilities refer to the same -year exposure; the numerator is not a probability for . For a proper prior and , the integrals defining this posterior mean are finite because is bounded on .