Given , the sum of the independent yearly counts is : their probability generating functions multiply to . Averaging this conditional law over the prior gives the mixed Poisson distribution
The likelihood for the full vector depends on only through , so is a sufficient statistic; conditioning on the total or on the full observed vector gives the same posterior for .
For an event of positive probability , the posterior density is proportional to . Put . Its mean is . The future count has conditional mean , so
This is the posterior mean from adjacent mixed Poisson probabilities. Both probabilities refer to the same -year exposure; the numerator is not a probability for . For a proper prior and , the integrals defining this posterior mean are finite because is bounded on .