Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 ib Paper 2 20D Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The transition row sums to one, since . From any state the Markov chain can reach zero, and from zero consecutive upward moves reach every state; hence it is irreducible. Its self-transition at zero has probability , so it is aperiodic. It is the reflected chain with geometric downward jumps.
Put for the hitting problem. The first-step equations for areSubtracting times the equation at gives the linear recurrence relation, valid for ,The separate boundary equation at is . It must not be replaced by the linear recurrence relation with : the absorbing hitting convention at zero is different from applying a first-step return equation there.
For , the linear recurrence relation has roots and , so for . The boundary equation gives . If , then and boundedness of probabilities forces , hence . If , the repeated-root solution is ; boundedness again gives and the boundary equation gives .
For , and the nonnegative harmonic candidate , together with , satisfies every first-step equation. Hitting-by-time- probabilities start from zero off the target and iterate those equations, so by induction they are bounded above by this candidate. Taking their increasing limit gives . But the general bounded solution has limit as , forcing under that bound. ThusIn particular the transient exponent is , fixed by the original boundary equation.
The probability of a subsequent return to zero when starting there is . It is one for , so the Markov chain is recurrent there. For it equals , so the irreducible Markov chain is transient.
For a stationary probability vector , balance at zero and one gives . Subtracting adjacent balance equations givesso this initial ratio propagates and . It can be normalized only when . In that caseDirect substitution verifies all balance equations, including . An irreducible Markov chain admitting this stationary probability law is positive recurrent, with mean return time . At the linear recurrence relation and boundary relation force every equal; no such nonzero sequence is summable. The recurrent chain is therefore null recurrent. In summary,